UPA's decision to divide Andhra Pradesh is based on narrow political calculations for 2014 Lok Sabha polls and risks prolonged agitations in other states
Amarnath K. Menon and Sandeep Unnithan August 2, 2013 | UPDATED 10:34 IST
Kalavakuntala Chandrasekhara Rao, 59, the man who fought a bitter 12-year political struggle for a separate Telangana state, was not sure that his battle was about to end. On July 30, KCR, as the founder president of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is popularly known, remained closeted in his Telangana Bhavan office for four hours. The MP from Mahbubnagar whose 11-day fast unto death in 2009 forced the UPA to first announce statehood, was bewildered by the swift political endgame in the Capital that created the new state within hours. First UPA endorsed the statehood decision, then, a few hours later, the Congress Working Committee (SWS) green-lighted it. India's fourth largest state would jointly share its capital, Hyderabad, with Andhra Pradesh. KCR stepped out of his office to offer a guarded reaction only after Digvijaya Singh, Congress general secretary managing Andhra Pradesh affairs, announced the formation of India's 29th state.
"We have to be cautious until Parliament enacts an appropriate legislation for the state," said KCR, not allowing himself to be overwhelmed by the clouds of pink and crowds of supporters who had broken into riotous celebration. "It's like a dream come true," Ponnam Prabhakar, Congress MP from Karimnagar, said in New Delhi. "I never thought I would see it in my lifetime." Clearly, it was not just trs that was taken by surprise.
Here's what India's 29th state will mean for players in the fray in the next Lok Sabha elections.
"Dividing Andhra Pradesh is for the welfare of the people and not for any political expediency," Digvijaya Singh said on July 30. But the Congress's Telangana plan is simple. Andhra Pradesh voted in the two largest blocks of Congress MPs, 29 in 2004 and 33 in 2009. It laid the foundations for UPA 1 and UPA 2. Faced with a near-total rout in 2014, the party, in an alliance with TRS, hopes to sweep Telangana's 17 Lok Sabha seats. The party hopes to corral N. Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy's ysr Congress in coastal Andhra Pradesh where it hopes to gain at least five Lok Sabha seats. Neither YSR Congress nor TDP has been able to consolidate its position in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions which have a total of 25 Lok Sabha and 175 Assembly seats.
Consequence of statehood
The Srikrishna Commission report of 2011, appointed by UPA to suggest a way out of the Telangana imbroglio, recommended a separate state. But with a caveat. Because, "while creation of Telangana would satisfy a large majority of people from the region," the report said, "it would also throw up several serious problems." The Congress decision, driven by pure political survival instinct, came without studying the larger economic and political costs. It ignored home ministry assessments warning of a revival of Naxalism in the new state, the billions of rupees coastal Andhra Pradesh would spend on a new state capital when it moves out of Hyderabad, and recent Intelligence Bureau (IB) assessments warning of public outrage opposing division.
A July 24 report by the home ministry's internal division warns of at least 21 more demands for new states.
But the biggest fear, a home ministry report of July 24 warns, is of "unrest and prolonged agitations" in other states including Uttar Pradesh, Assam, West Bengal and Maharashtra, where people have been demanding new states. Even before CWC took its final call, Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) called for a 72-hour shutdown in Darjeeling in support of Gorkhaland. In Maharashtra, BJP and Shiv Sena braced themselves to raise the issue of a separate Vidarbha. In Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati upped the ante for carving four states out of Uttar Pradesh.
Andhra Pradesh was the first state created on a linguistic basis when the Telugu-speaking areas of erstwhile Hyderabad state were merged with Andhra state in 1956. Experts predict Telangana could spawn secessionist trends. "This thoughtless decision may lead to a demand for a separate Telugu nation, the 17th largest in the world," says political commentator C. Narasimha Rao.
Rise in militancy
The Ministry of Home Affairs is the nodal agency for the creation of the new state, a process that is likely to take
approximately between four and six months.
The home ministry report says Telangana could become a bastion for India's gravest internal security threat, the Maoists. The new state, "could become an easy target, considering its proximity to the worst-affected regions of Chhattisgarh's Bastar district and Maharashtra's Gadchiroli district", it notes. Twelve of the 15 members of the Maoists' central committee hail from the new state. The Maoists were driven out of the state by the Andhra Pradesh Police a decade ago. The report predicts Maoists could infiltrate again, taking advantage of the six months it will take to create Telangana.
The Maoist bastion threat is also a scenario advanced by Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy who is opposed to the division. The state police, however, say that in the Telangana districts, the few incidents have been restricted to five sub-divisions in Khammam and Warangal. "Andhra Pradesh is a role model for the rest of the country in fighting Maoists with an exclusive commando force and intelligence-gathering mechanism," explains Andhra Pradesh dgp V. Dinesh Reddy.
There are apprehensions that the demographic changes could result in communal flare-ups. All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is opposed to the division. "Creating Telangana is going to help only bjp in the long run," says AIMIM president and Hyderabad Lok Sabha MP Asaduddin Owaisi. The party, which has seven MLAs, is wary of its diminishing administrative clout in Hyderabad.
Colossal expense
Creation of new states means the Centre has to provide funds to develop infrastructure. Chhattisgarh is spending Rs.20,000 crore to develop its new state capital, Naya Raipur, besides other administration-related costs. A new capital for Andhra will cost much more unless both states agree to function from Hyderabad. Other investments will include sharing of water and natural resources. This was the reason why Congress leaders such as Union Science and Technology Minister S. Jaipal Reddy endorsed the now-aborted idea of including Kurnool and Anantapur districts in the new state. Telangana would then have the Srisailam dam and reservoir on the Krishna river, and the 1,670 mw hydel station. Unmindful of the consequences, Congress is working on a plan that will please its dynasts. Digvijaya Singh has set a 215-day timeline to complete the formation of the state. The process for creating a separate state will be initiated on August 20-Rajiv Gandhi's birthday-and given a concrete shape by December 9-Sonia Gandhi's birthday.
The decision to split Andhra has horrified the united Andhra 'Seemandhra' supporters within Andhra Pradesh. P.V. Satish Kumar, MLA from East Godavari district, sent his resignation to the Assembly speaker within hours of the Telangana decision. Bandhs were called in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. Seemandhra leaders say they are worried about what will happen to them in Hyderabad especially when the state eventually becomes the capital of Telangana.
Several Congress leaders feel betrayed by the bifurcation. "We have paid a terrible price for trusting one family," says another Seemandhra MLA. There are indications that their discontent could spiral into a landslide of resignations to scuttle the resolution on the new state in the Andhra Pradesh Assembly. Home ministry officials say they have readied a Plan B. In case of en-masse resignations, the home ministry will dismiss Kiran Kumar Reddy's government and impose President's Rule. Nothing, it seems, can now come in the way of statehood for Telangana.
with Bhavna Vij-Aurora
Amarnath K. Menon and Sandeep Unnithan August 2, 2013 | UPDATED 10:34 IST
Kalavakuntala Chandrasekhara Rao, 59, the man who fought a bitter 12-year political struggle for a separate Telangana state, was not sure that his battle was about to end. On July 30, KCR, as the founder president of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) is popularly known, remained closeted in his Telangana Bhavan office for four hours. The MP from Mahbubnagar whose 11-day fast unto death in 2009 forced the UPA to first announce statehood, was bewildered by the swift political endgame in the Capital that created the new state within hours. First UPA endorsed the statehood decision, then, a few hours later, the Congress Working Committee (SWS) green-lighted it. India's fourth largest state would jointly share its capital, Hyderabad, with Andhra Pradesh. KCR stepped out of his office to offer a guarded reaction only after Digvijaya Singh, Congress general secretary managing Andhra Pradesh affairs, announced the formation of India's 29th state.
"We have to be cautious until Parliament enacts an appropriate legislation for the state," said KCR, not allowing himself to be overwhelmed by the clouds of pink and crowds of supporters who had broken into riotous celebration. "It's like a dream come true," Ponnam Prabhakar, Congress MP from Karimnagar, said in New Delhi. "I never thought I would see it in my lifetime." Clearly, it was not just trs that was taken by surprise.
Here's what India's 29th state will mean for players in the fray in the next Lok Sabha elections.
"Dividing Andhra Pradesh is for the welfare of the people and not for any political expediency," Digvijaya Singh said on July 30. But the Congress's Telangana plan is simple. Andhra Pradesh voted in the two largest blocks of Congress MPs, 29 in 2004 and 33 in 2009. It laid the foundations for UPA 1 and UPA 2. Faced with a near-total rout in 2014, the party, in an alliance with TRS, hopes to sweep Telangana's 17 Lok Sabha seats. The party hopes to corral N. Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy's ysr Congress in coastal Andhra Pradesh where it hopes to gain at least five Lok Sabha seats. Neither YSR Congress nor TDP has been able to consolidate its position in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema regions which have a total of 25 Lok Sabha and 175 Assembly seats.
Consequence of statehood
The Srikrishna Commission report of 2011, appointed by UPA to suggest a way out of the Telangana imbroglio, recommended a separate state. But with a caveat. Because, "while creation of Telangana would satisfy a large majority of people from the region," the report said, "it would also throw up several serious problems." The Congress decision, driven by pure political survival instinct, came without studying the larger economic and political costs. It ignored home ministry assessments warning of a revival of Naxalism in the new state, the billions of rupees coastal Andhra Pradesh would spend on a new state capital when it moves out of Hyderabad, and recent Intelligence Bureau (IB) assessments warning of public outrage opposing division.
A July 24 report by the home ministry's internal division warns of at least 21 more demands for new states.
But the biggest fear, a home ministry report of July 24 warns, is of "unrest and prolonged agitations" in other states including Uttar Pradesh, Assam, West Bengal and Maharashtra, where people have been demanding new states. Even before CWC took its final call, Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) called for a 72-hour shutdown in Darjeeling in support of Gorkhaland. In Maharashtra, BJP and Shiv Sena braced themselves to raise the issue of a separate Vidarbha. In Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati upped the ante for carving four states out of Uttar Pradesh.
Andhra Pradesh was the first state created on a linguistic basis when the Telugu-speaking areas of erstwhile Hyderabad state were merged with Andhra state in 1956. Experts predict Telangana could spawn secessionist trends. "This thoughtless decision may lead to a demand for a separate Telugu nation, the 17th largest in the world," says political commentator C. Narasimha Rao.
Rise in militancy
The Ministry of Home Affairs is the nodal agency for the creation of the new state, a process that is likely to take
approximately between four and six months.
The home ministry report says Telangana could become a bastion for India's gravest internal security threat, the Maoists. The new state, "could become an easy target, considering its proximity to the worst-affected regions of Chhattisgarh's Bastar district and Maharashtra's Gadchiroli district", it notes. Twelve of the 15 members of the Maoists' central committee hail from the new state. The Maoists were driven out of the state by the Andhra Pradesh Police a decade ago. The report predicts Maoists could infiltrate again, taking advantage of the six months it will take to create Telangana.
The Maoist bastion threat is also a scenario advanced by Chief Minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy who is opposed to the division. The state police, however, say that in the Telangana districts, the few incidents have been restricted to five sub-divisions in Khammam and Warangal. "Andhra Pradesh is a role model for the rest of the country in fighting Maoists with an exclusive commando force and intelligence-gathering mechanism," explains Andhra Pradesh dgp V. Dinesh Reddy.
There are apprehensions that the demographic changes could result in communal flare-ups. All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is opposed to the division. "Creating Telangana is going to help only bjp in the long run," says AIMIM president and Hyderabad Lok Sabha MP Asaduddin Owaisi. The party, which has seven MLAs, is wary of its diminishing administrative clout in Hyderabad.
Colossal expense
Creation of new states means the Centre has to provide funds to develop infrastructure. Chhattisgarh is spending Rs.20,000 crore to develop its new state capital, Naya Raipur, besides other administration-related costs. A new capital for Andhra will cost much more unless both states agree to function from Hyderabad. Other investments will include sharing of water and natural resources. This was the reason why Congress leaders such as Union Science and Technology Minister S. Jaipal Reddy endorsed the now-aborted idea of including Kurnool and Anantapur districts in the new state. Telangana would then have the Srisailam dam and reservoir on the Krishna river, and the 1,670 mw hydel station. Unmindful of the consequences, Congress is working on a plan that will please its dynasts. Digvijaya Singh has set a 215-day timeline to complete the formation of the state. The process for creating a separate state will be initiated on August 20-Rajiv Gandhi's birthday-and given a concrete shape by December 9-Sonia Gandhi's birthday.The decision to split Andhra has horrified the united Andhra 'Seemandhra' supporters within Andhra Pradesh. P.V. Satish Kumar, MLA from East Godavari district, sent his resignation to the Assembly speaker within hours of the Telangana decision. Bandhs were called in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. Seemandhra leaders say they are worried about what will happen to them in Hyderabad especially when the state eventually becomes the capital of Telangana.
Several Congress leaders feel betrayed by the bifurcation. "We have paid a terrible price for trusting one family," says another Seemandhra MLA. There are indications that their discontent could spiral into a landslide of resignations to scuttle the resolution on the new state in the Andhra Pradesh Assembly. Home ministry officials say they have readied a Plan B. In case of en-masse resignations, the home ministry will dismiss Kiran Kumar Reddy's government and impose President's Rule. Nothing, it seems, can now come in the way of statehood for Telangana.
with Bhavna Vij-Aurora
Excerpt from: India Today
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