December 5, 2013
Political calculations
Cynical course
Polarising impact
The ‘Rayala-Telangana’ idea seeks to exploit a regional divide within a regional divide. It could backfire with serious consequences.
The UPA government’s notion of a ‘Rayala-Telangana’
state could fail before it gets off the ground. The Telangana Rashtra
Samiti has called for a bandh to protest the idea. It is a rare case of a
newly emerging state saying it does not want additional territory. And
of course those for a united Andhra oppose the idea anyway. Although the
TRS is the flag-bearer of the Telangana statehood cause — and the major
Congress ally in the region — its anger should not come as a surprise.
Not to those who read the Congress’s strategy on the issue. The
Bharatiya Janata Party too is on the offensive. Those for Telangana will
also bitterly resent the ‘joint capital’ status for Hyderabad. But what
is really rattling everyone is the plan to include Kurnool and
Anantapur districts in the new state, which would then be called
Rayala-Telangana.
Three
political calculations underpin the Centre’s, or rather the Congress’s,
strategy on ‘Rayala-Telangana.’ The first of these: it could effectively
divide the anti-bifurcation movement. The people of Rayalaseema were
against the division of Andhra Pradesh, and Kurnool and Anantapur
districts were home to some of the biggest protests. Yet, this is where
the Congress leadership believes the wedge must be driven. What if
people in these districts could be convinced that their first preference
— United Andhra — is out? Might they then turn their attention to
seeking a better deal within the new state? For instance, on
water-sharing? They argue that even if people in the region were
anti-bifurcation, they were never enamoured of their brethren in coastal
Andhra. This exploits a regional divide within a regional divide.
Second:
some in the Congress believe this could transform any voting in the
Assembly. As of today, 160 MLAs are from Seemandhra regions, and 119 are
from Telangana. (Another 15 of the first group stand disqualified). The
nays have it. But take away the 28 MLAs of Kurnool and Anantapur from
the 160 and pencil them into the Telangana column and the scoreline
reads 147-132 for the new state. This of course involves very dicey
assumptions. But the Congress believes the MLAs and MPs and,
importantly, lower-level leaders from here, will go along. And many
indeed might. This could also leave the masses, still opposed to the
move, leaderless, and perhaps keep them off the streets.
Third:
from the Congress point of view, the carving out of Rayala-Telangana
would bring the party two further benefits. It would truncate the base
of its major rival and dilute that of its main ally. Rayalaseema is the
stronghold of Jagan Reddy’s YSR Congress party. Take away two of its
four districts and the Congress believes it has him corralled. Kurnool
and Anantapur account for 28 Assembly and four Lok Sabha seats. Their
joining the new state would also dilute the strength of the TRS, which
has no presence in any of those seats. Perhaps this might further
pressure the TRS to merge with the Congress. It would also leave the new
state and what remains of Andhra with exactly 21 seats each in the Lok
Sabha.
All three calculations
beg for trouble. The TRS is coming on to the streets with its opposition
to the ‘Rayala’ element. The BJP could do the same. And whether you are
a supporter of Telangana or a United Andhra, the chances of things
going wrong with this cynical course are worrying. The race is on to get
the division through before the Model Code of Conduct for next year’s
general elections comes into force — which it could by February. This
further highlights the Congress’s move as having less to do with genuine
statehood aspirations than with poll engineering. So at the same time
as it tries to win the game in the Assembly, the party makes it clear
that it does not matter if it loses there.
Simply
put, the Congress is saying that (if it loses out on a vote), the
opinion of a democratically elected State legislature counts for
nothing. This could launch an awful trend. Sure, the assent of the State
Assembly is not mandatory in a legal-constitutional sense. It has not
been the practice, though, in any of the last several State divisions.
Whether in the case of Chhattisgarh, Uttarakhand or Jharkhand, the
opinion of the Assemblies of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar was
given importance. Each had six to eight weeks of discussions. In the
case of the U.P. Assembly, 10 weeks. Their suggestions were taken on
board.
In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress intends to ram
it through, the defiance of its own Chief Minister notwithstanding. The
State Assembly won’t get anything like the time-frame the others did.
About the only safe prediction of what will happen as the Assembly
convenes is chaos. Anger and passion will rule. But perhaps that is the
idea: that the Centre could disregard the Assembly’s views, indeed its
very role in the process. In terms of future fallout, this is scary. Do
this once, and it’s hard to say where it will stop.
Yet,
even the short-term calculations might explode. In the 21 Lok Sabha
seats the truncated A.P. would have, a wipe-out of the Congress seems
likely. The last round of by-elections signalled that sharply. What
could it pick up in the new state? Bringing Kurnool and Anantapur into
it also means making Jagan Reddy’s YSR Congress a force in
Rayala-Telangana. It already has a base in districts like Khammam which
have a huge “settler” population from Coastal A.P.
The
fight in the four Lok Sabha seats in the two ‘new’ districts might well
be between the YSRC and the Telugu Desam Party. (The last by-election
to the State Assembly held in Anantapur saw the Congress finish third).
One Lok Sabha seat in the new State would go to the MIM. A TDP-BJP
alliance — now on the cards — could also pick up a few seats. That would
leave the Congress sharing 10-12 seats with an increasingly unhappy
ally, the TRS. So the whole exercise could give the party half-a-dozen
seats there and vanavas in A.P. for the foreseeable future. And
how long will the ties with the TRS hold? They have frayed quickly in
the past. The willingness to chance all this argues both electoral
cynicism and desperation. Remember the Congress won 33 Lok Sabha seats
from Andhra Pradesh in 2009 — more than any party did from a single
State anywhere in the country. It could lose most of those in 2014. And
at the end of it, have resolved none of the major issues driving
statehood demands: water-sharing, Hyderabad, and more.
There
is also the polarising impact on the Telugu vote in other States in
2014. There are major Telugu communities in Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu,
Karnataka and Odisha, for instance. In Maharashtra, those communities
could favour Telangana and vote the Congress. In Tamil Nadu, Karnataka
and Odisha, the impact on the much larger numbers there, could be the
opposite. But never mind the polls, the most risky and dangerous part is
here and now, in the process itself. Some leaders of the government
have declared they will get the Bill on Telangana through Parliament in
this winter session. That starts on Thursday and ends within three
weeks.
What should normally be the process? The Group
of Ministers (GoM) presents its report to the Union Cabinet. The
Cabinet studies it and sends it on to the Union Law Ministry which will
draft a bill on statehood. The Cabinet finalises the bill and sends it
on to the President of India. The President after studying it, refers it
to the Andhra Pradesh Assembly for its views. The Assembly debates the
bill and returns it with its views to the President. Who then recommends
the bill to Parliament. Only then does the latter discuss and vote on
the bill.
Normally, each stage of this process would
require a minimum of one or two weeks. The stage at the Assembly, as
the process in earlier cases shows, needs 6-8 weeks. How will all of
that happen by December 20? Key actors, including the President, the
Assembly and Parliament will be denied the time to study or debate the
bill. None of them will take kindly to that. There has also been talk of
extending the session or holding a special one for this bill. All to
beat the Model Code of Conduct deadline.
Whether you
are for or against the bill, this amputation of the democratic process
sets dangerous precedents. Maybe, as the cliché goes, ‘wisdom will
prevail’ and the bill won’t be pushed through in the winter session. A
couple of Congress leaders have begun to waffle on the matter. If it
still does happen, it will be driven by the need to get it done before
the Model Code of Conduct comes into force. And for a possible
half-a-dozen seats in the next Lok Sabha for the Congress. There is no
other explanation for short-circuiting the process to wind it up before
February. That too for polls where, compared to 33 seats the last time,
the Congress is in for a penny, in for a pounding.
sainath.p@thehindu.co.in
Source: The Hindu
