HYDERABAD: The flurry of activities notwithstanding, Telangana is unlikely to become a reality before the 2014 elections. The Congress high command - though strong in its resolve to carve out a new state - is unable to bite the bullet. This is primarily because of chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy. Though all methods have been used to persuade Kiran to fall in line - including in the last two days- he is unwilling to relent. The powers that be aver - on the basis of information from multiple sources that Kiran will resign the moment the Telangana resolution is sought to be introduced in the Andhra Pradesh assembly. Intelligence reports have also predicted that he will launch his political outfit batting for united Andhra Pradesh immediately after resigning.
But Kiran's expected resignation is not worrying the Congress high command. What the bosses fear is that any new Congress chief minister will not be able to command the majority in the assembly and win a vote of confidence. In this situation, the assembly will have to be dissolved and fresh elections ordered. "With the term of the assembly ending in April next year and even the general elections slated then, the feeling is to continue with the Kiran government till the end of the term," said a source in the inside track of the development.
However, till the elections are announced - the Congress party and the government will continue to make motions of moving forward on the matter. The group of ministers (GoM) set up to study the problem will continue its work and present its recommendations to the Union cabinet at the end of the month.
Even as the GoM goes ahead with its confabulations, Congress party bosses are also seeking legal opinion to figure out whether a newly appointed chief minister can carry on in office for a few months without facing a vote of confidence in the legislative assembly. Though President's rule is an option that the government should have ordinarily preferred to- the thinking is against this. There is an opinion that legally it may not be possible to divide the state when President's rule is on. However, in the past - in 1966- Punjab was divided in the midst of President's rule. The Congress party is also seriously mulling over the proposal to merge Anantapur and Kurnool districts with Telangana to water down the opposition to the new state in Rayalaseema region which is Jagan's stronghold. Jagan has emerged as the most potent opposition to bifurcation.
Now, it transpires that the Congress is not even sure that it will be able to get a resolution on Telangana approved in the Lok Sabha. The apprehension is that in the run-up to the general elections, the major opposition party (the BJP) is unlikely to play ball with the Congress and help to get the bill passed. Though on paper the BJP is committed to Telangana, it now senses an opportunity in the political vacuum in Seemandhra and wants to piggy ride on the back of TDP.
Analysts aver that the BJP will oppose some clauses and sub-clauses in the proposed bill and stymie efforts of the Congress to create Telangana before the elections.
Sensing this, the Congress has already initiated back channel talks with the BJP seeking support for the Telangana bill.
The TRS which is the only party unequivocally for Telangana will protest at the delay in creation of the separate state but will benefit from the delay. If Telangana becomes a reality before the elections, the party will have to share honors with the Congress for creating the new state. But if it does not happen, the party will sweep the polls in the region as people's ire in Telangana will make them vote decidedly in favour of TRS.
The delay in the creation of the new state is however going to hit business and life hard. Business and other sections of people are now mentally prepared for the bifurcation which they analyze will end the uncertainty in their lives. But for the time being it seems that the uncertainty will continue.
Source: The Times of India
