Jun 7,
2018 Shashi
Tharoor
While Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not achieved
the degree of “state capture” that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has,
he is also 11 years behind. And the path the two leaders are on is similar
enough to invite comparison – and provoke concern.
NEW DELHI
– Comparisons are generally invidious, especially when they involve political
leaders from different countries. But, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdoğan rose to power 11 years before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi,
there is much about their personal and professional trajectories that makes
comparison irresistible.
Both
Erdoğan and Modi come from humble, small-town backgrounds: Erdoğan sold
lemonade and pastries in the streets of Rize; Modi helped his father and
brother run a tea stall on a railway platform in Vadnagar. They are self-made
men, energetic and physically fit – Erdoğan was a professional soccer player
before becoming a politician; Modi has bragged about his 56-inch
(142-centimeter) chest – not to mention effective orators.
Both
Erdoğan and Modi were raised with religious convictions that ultimately shaped
their political careers. Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) and
Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have both promoted a religiously infused,
nationalist creed that they argue is more authentic than the Western-inspired
secular ideologies that previously guided their countries’ development.
Yet, to
win power, Erdoğan and Modi did not count exclusively on religious voters. Both
campaigned on modernist platforms, arguing that by implementing
business-friendly policies and reducing corruption, they could bring about
greater economic prosperity than the establishment they sought to supplant.
Here,
Erdoğan and Modi press both the past and the future into service. Erdoğan
extols the Ottoman Empire’s legacy, while telling voters that they are
not only “choosing a president and deputies,” but also “making a choice for our
country’s upcoming century.” Likewise, Modi constantly evokes the achievements
of ancient India, which he claims to be reviving in the name of creating a
better future.
In short,
Erdoğan and Modi have consolidated their power by glorifying the past, while
portraying themselves as dynamic, future-oriented agents of change – heroes
galloping in on white stallions, swords upraised, to cut the Gordian knots
holding their countries’ down.
At the
same time, Erdoğan and Modi have painted themselves as political outsiders, who
represent the “real” Turks or Indians long marginalized by cosmopolitan
secularists. With popular discontent high when they rose to power, such
political messaging fell on receptive ears. The narrative of resentment against
the established secular elites, peppered with religious-chauvinist discourse
and historical revisionism, facilitated their emergence as voices of the middle
classes of the hinterlands and second-tier cities and towns.
When
Erdoğan first became prime minister in 2003, his position was bolstered by
booming global growth, emboldening him to start transforming the Turkish
polity. His political formula – a potent compound of religious identity,
triumphalist majoritarianism, hyper-nationalism, increasing authoritarianism
(including institutional dominance), constraints on the media, strong economic
growth, and a compelling personal brand – carried him to re-election as prime
minister twice, and from there to the presidency in 2014.
Whether
consciously or unconsciously, Modi has adapted Erdoğan’s formula to his own
effort to reshape India. He has sought to marginalize Muslims and reinforce
Hindu chauvinism. Minorities in general feel beleaguered, as Modi’s nationalism
does not merely exclude them, but portrays them as traitors.
Moreover,
in Modi’s India, political loyalties are often purchased, and institutions are
subverted to serve a narrow sectarian agenda. Dissenters in the media and the
universities have faced intimidation. The only area where Modi has been tripped
up is GDP growth, owing to his government’s gross economic mismanagement.
On the
international stage, too, there are notable parallels between how Erdoğan and
Modi conduct themselves. Both pursue activist foreign policies aimed at
boosting their domestic image, and have cultivated diaspora support. Erdoğan’s
speeches in the Balkans might antagonize the United States and Europe, and even
Serbs and Croats, but they raise his stock with Turks. When Modi addresses
stadiums full of Indian expatriates on his visits abroad, his speeches are
aimed squarely at audiences back home.
Soner
Captagay, a Turkish analyst and author of a book on Erdoğan, recently remarked, “Half of the
country hates him, and thinks he can do nothing right. But at the same time,
the other half adores him, and thinks he can do nothing wrong.” The same is
true of Modi in India.
Of
course, there are important differences between Turkey and India. For starters,
Turkey’s population, at 81 million, is less than half that of just one Indian
state, Uttar Pradesh, with its population of 210 million. Turkey is 98% Muslim,
while India is only 80% Hindu. Islamism, as Hindu chauvinists never tire of
pointing out, is a global phenomenon; Hindutva is not. Turkey has no equivalent
of Mahatma Gandhi, with his message of non-violence and co-existence drilled
into the head of every Indian schoolchild.
Moreover,
Turkey is more or less a developed country, while India still has a long way to
go to reach that point. And, unlike India, Turkey was never colonized or
partitioned on religious grounds, as India was to create Pakistan (though the
exchange of populations that accompanied Turkey’s separation from Greece comes
close).
What
Turkey has experienced – and India has not – are bouts of military rule. In
fact, India’s democracy is deeply entrenched, making it less vulnerable to
capture by a single ruler. That partly explains why it is so difficult for many
Indians to imagine their country following in Turkey’s footsteps to become a
majoritarian illiberal democracy with an autocrat in charge.
But while
it is true that Modi and the BJP have not achieved the degree of “state
capture” that Erdoğan and the AKP have, they are also 11 years behind. And the
path they are on is similar enough to invite comparison – and provoke concern.
The warning bells are ringing: like the Turkish lira, the India rupee has lost
over 5% of its value in the last month. With upcoming elections in both
countries – Turkey this month, and India in Spring 2019 – will voters heed the
alarm?
Source: project-syndicate
